Friday, April 20, 2018

What experts say...

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute.
Read what he has to say about trade war, technological leadership, AI, 5G:

"Today’s trade conflict reveals the extent to which America has lost its dominant global position. When a poor, developing China started increasing its trade with the West a quarter-century ago, few imagined that it would now be the world’s industrial giant. China has already surpassed the US in manufacturing output, savings, trade, and even GDP when measured in terms of purchasing power parity.

Even more frightening to many in the advanced countries is the real possibility that, beyond catching up rapidly in its technological competence, China could actually lead in one of the key industries of the future: Artificial Intelligence. AI is based on big data, and the availability of data is fundamentally a political matter that implicates issues such as privacy, transparency, security, and the rules that frame economic competition.

The EU, for its part, seems highly concerned with protecting data privacy, whereas China does not. Unfortunately, that could give China a large advantage in developing AI.

And advantages in AI will extend well beyond the technology sector, potentially to almost every sector of the economy. Clearly, there needs to be a global agreement to set standards for developing and deploying AI and related technologies. Europeans should not have to compromise their genuinely held concerns about privacy just to promote trade, which is simply a means (sometimes) to achieving higher living standards.

In the years ahead, we are going to have to figure out how to create a “fair” global trading regime among countries with fundamentally different economic systems, histories, cultures, and societal preferences."





Source:
- https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-unnecessary-trade-war-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2018-04

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Will 5G unleash a "digital" cold war ?


5G logo
We are in an era where apps, artificial intelligence and connected objects are entering, disrupting and revolutionizing sectors as diverse as transport, energy, health, finance or construction. Mastering mobile networks technology is becoming crucial.
It is not involving the telecom industry alone, but all industries are impacted.

This is why China has made 5G one of its economic and strategic priorities. 5G is one of the pillars of  Made in China 2025 plan (plan that I wrote about recently, you can click on the link to go to the corresponding post). It aims to make China a world reference in terms of innovation and new technologies, while it has long been seen as a low-cost country simply copying more or less foreign products. For China, 5G is part of the essential technological foundations that will allow the emergence of economic champions. The goal is to be the first to deploy 5G technology throughout its territory, while being a leader in the field of patents, standards, design and manufacturing of these high-speed networks; knowing that 5G technology is designed to connect objects from different industries.

Higher investment
China has worked hard in the 5G. According to a forecast  from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's cumulative investment in 5G will reach by 2025, 214 billion US dollars!   

Of course, Chinese telecom equipment manufacturers are among the main beneficiaries. 

For the United States, China's ambitions in 5G pose a serious threat to the US economy.
The 5G race is not just a technological battle!! Both China and USA believe that the one who wins will have a decisive advantage to take the world economic leadership in the longer term.  

So if China is heavily investing in this technology -which is, by the way, totally legitimate and fair-, what are the other developed countries doing? What are the plans from Europe, Japan, USA?

We haven't heard of any concrete, elaborated plan, rather than few "shy" & unclear initiatives here and there.

Or is the only response is a "digital" cold war; a trade war by taxing products ??

Saturday, April 7, 2018

What is the "Made in China 2025" plan ?


 China, which has already surpassed Japan as Asia's leading exporter of high-tech products in 2014, is now looking to take the lead from the United States and Germany; With competitive multi-national companies in high value-added products.

The Made in China 2025 plan draws direct inspiration from Germany's "Industry 4.0" plan and is designed to elevate China from "world factory" to "big industrial power", mastering research, innovation and high value-added production.


This "Made in China 2025" redefines all of China's industrial priorities. China wants to be at the forefront of the new industrial revolution linked to digital integration. As the efficiency and quality of Chinese producers are highly uneven, and multiple challenges need to be overcome in a short amount of time, China wants to avoid being squeezed by newly emerging low-cost producers and wants more effectively to cooperate and to compete with advanced industrialized economies.

The Made in China 2025 has clear goals, tools, and sector focus. Its guiding principles are to have manufacturing be innovation-driven, emphasize quality over quantity, achieve green development, optimize the structure of Chinese industry, and nurture human talent.
    The plan highlights 10 priority sectors:
    1. New advanced information technology;
    2. Automated machine tools & robotics;
    3. Aerospace and aeronautical equipment;
    4. Maritime equipment and high-tech shipping;
    5. Modern rail transport equipment; 
    6. New-energy vehicles and equipment; 
    7. Power equipment; 
    8. Agricultural equipment; 
    9. New materials; 
    10. Biopharma and advanced medical products.
      It focuses on the entire manufacturing process and not just innovation.The plan also specifies focus on the countries that together make up the Silk Road initiative.

      Multi-national companies will most probably face new challenges with this plan.
      A clear goal is to make Chinese companies more competitive across the board, to localize production of components and final products, and to have Chinese firms move up the value-added chain in production and innovation networks, and to achieve much greater international brand recognition.

      So is there an impact on the world economy? Are there opportunities in this plan for non-Chinese multi-national companies?

      post to be continued...


      Sources:
      • http://english.gov.cn/2016special/madeinchina2025/
      • https://www.csis.org/analysis/made-china-2025
      • https://www.theguardian.com/world/
      • https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/